S&P 500: S&P 500 could be breaking out


The S&P 500 was up for the fifth straight week as the Fed held off a rate hike but says two more are coming later this year, per CNBC. The last time the index was up five weeks in a row was in September 2021. The index closed at 4,409.56, a key trendline support.

Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end S&P 500 price target this week to 4,500 from 4,000, citing the new U.S. soft landing forecast and higher-than-expected earnings, per Yahoo Finance.

The bears should take notes that despite both the 10-2Y and 10Y-3M Treasury yield spreads being deeply inverted, the spread between the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield and its 600-day EMA (another leading indicator for recession) stands at 1.29%, meaning an impending U.S. recession is unlikely. Goldman told CNBC last week that the odds of a recession occurring in the U.S. within 12 months are declining to only a 25% probability.

Be aware that it could be highly volatile next week as the Fed blackout period ended on June 15 and Fed Chair Powell will testify for the U.S. Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

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