S&P 500: The S&P 500 retests 4,115 as the market prices in a 25 bps rate hike at the May 3 FOMC meeting

 


The S&P 500 pulled back from its trendline resistance on Thursday after the Fed's Mester, a non-voting member of the FOMC, said she sees the policy rate to move above 5% and expects a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.

Both the U.S. Services and Manufacturing PMI came in on Friday above 50, beating Wall Street's consensus estimates. The latest Atlanta Fed US Q1 2023 GDP forecast stood at 2.5% as of April 18. The data suggests that the long awaited recession might not happen anytime soon. 



As a matter of fact, the past three recessions occurred after the U.S. 2 year treasury yield crossed under its 600-day EMA. The spread between the U.S. 2 year treasury yield and its 600-day EMA is 1.59% as of Friday.

In our view, the big tech earnings releases in the next two weeks will determine whether or not the S&P 500 will break above 4,200.

This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

SP500: The market turns into a mess as Wall Street lost confidence in Trump's handling of the economy

Image
The S&P 500 took a 2.41% nose dive on Monday , sliding down over 3% intraday to retest the 600-day EMA at 5,111.49, after CNBC's survey showed that only 43% of Americans approved of Trump's handling of the economy . Investor confidence may also be hurt by the lack of progress on global trade, added CNBC. American companies such as Boeing [BA] , Tesla [TSLA], Apple [AAPL] and Nvidia [NVDA] appear to be the big losers in Trump's tr a de war , letting their foreign competitors gain an advantage in the global market. To make matters worse, Trump is now ramping up attack s on Fed Chair Powell and demands that the Fed lower rates. Wall Street analyst s warn about deeper selloff s of the financial markets if Trump fires Fed Chair Powell. The U.S. GDP Q1 forecast by the Atlanta Fed is -2.2% as of April 17. Keep an eye on the 2Y treasury yield, it just broke its 600-day EMA. In the past 25 years, all three US recessions occurred after the 2Y treasury yield drop...
Read more

TESLA INC. (NASDAQ:TSLA): Tesla stock's post election surge has completely evaporated after January sales in Europe plunged 45%

Image
  Tesla stock took a nose dive , down over 8% for the day and wiping out the post election surge, after Bloomberg reported that Tesla's January EV sales in Europe plunged 45% Y-O-Y . From a technical viewpoint, Tesla stock's downtrend is still intact with t he price target of $288.39 after a descending triangle chart pattern breakdown on February 5 . The stock broke below its 200-day EMA intraday and could be heading down to test the $288.39 level this week. Beware of the bearish "lower-lows" chart pattern as well as the emerging "head-and-shoulders" chart pattern!!!!! This note contained herein is our opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!
Read more

TESLA INC. (NASDAQ:TSLA): UPDATE - Tesla stock's downtrend is still intact / Sell $TSLA/Buy $BYDDF

Image
  Tesla stock is under selling pressure after BYD announced on Tuesday that the company will offer its free automated driver assistance system (ADAS) in China on their 21 models. It looks like the smart money is moving out of $TSLA into BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF). BYD stock has already been up 46.27% YTD while $TSLA is down 16.44%. From a technical viewpoint, Tesla stock's downtrend is still intact with t he price target of $288.39 after a descending triangle chart pattern breakdown on February 5 . Keep an eye on the trendline support ~ $314. A breakdown could mean that Tesla stock's post election surge has completely evaporated. This note contained herein is our opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update !
Read more