NMS Investment Research

The S&P 500 took a nother tumble this week, down 2. 53 %, as the index broke below the key support level at 4,190 and the 100-day EMA crossed over the 50-day EMA. To make matters worse, the downtrend channel, which began to emerge in July/August, has now broken to the downside, making the lower-lows chart pattern look even more bearish.  The S&P 500 is oversold and could bounce off from here. Be aware though, that the bears may try to take the index down to retest 4,000/3,976 if the market is disappointed by the outcome of the FOMC meeting next week. Keep an eye on the release of Apple's fiscal Q4 earnings results on November 2. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

  S. Korean EV battery maker LG Energy Solution just told Reuters on Wednesday that , "EV demand next year could be lower than expectations . " Tesla stock is retesting the key $207.25 support level. The next support is $195 if the stock can't bounce off from here. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

Tesla stock took a 12.6 % dive after the company 's Q3 earnings release on Wednesday. The company warned that its main goal at the moment is to make their cars affordable. That could mean many things, including aggressive production cost cutting and/or continue its price cutting strategy.  Elon Musk said that Tesla "dug its own grave" with the Cybertruck, as he warned that it would take years for the company to ramp up production of the electric pickup. The company will begin delivering the trucks at the end of November 2023. At that time, investors may be able to find out more what will happen with the 1.8 million pre-orders. The stock could bounce off from here if Tesla bulls step in, or fall further to retest the key $207.25 support level. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

  T he index took a tumble for the week , down 2.39%, in response to Fed Chair Powell's comment on Thursday that "inflation is still to o high". His comment sent the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield spiking to 4.98%, a 16-year high . To make matters worse, some Fed officials see little immediate threat from the Israel-Hamas wa r to the US economy , per CNN. T wo-thirds of FOMC committee members believe that one more rate hike before the end of the year is appropriate , per the September Fed Minutes . The market was expecting the Middle East war to make them reconsider. T he S&P 500 could bounce off the trendline support but the bears could take the index down further to retest the 4,190 support level, ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. Keep an eye on the 10-year yield key resistance level at 5.26%, the June 2007 high. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

T he index broke the key resistance at 4,337 after the terrorist organization Hamas attacked Israel over the weekend. No one knows how long Israel will continue bombarding the Gaza Strip to punish Hamas' terrorists and supporters for their heinous crimes, killing innocent civilians, including several farm workers from Thailand. Hence, the idea of one more rate hike before the end of the year, suggested by two-thirds of the FOMC committee members per the Fed Minutes released today, could pretty much be gone out of the window. The index is retesting its 50-day EMA. A breakout will send the index higher to retest the trendline resistances ~ 4,425. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

Apple stock bounced off from its 200-day EMA and is retesting the 100-day EMA despite noise from financial bloggers and TV influencers. One may need to be mindful, as news can be real or fake. China says it has not issued any bans on Apple iPhones, per CNN, after WSJ and Bloomberg report ed that the country banned iPhone use by employees of government and state-owned firms. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

  Keep an eye on the relative strength (RS) between MSCI Thailand and MSCI EEM (Emerging Markets) as it may be about to break below the key support level at 1.66. Be aware that since March this year, t he Fed has been reducing the size of its balance sheet by about $700 billion to $8 .0 trillion , as of September 27 . Higher interest rates in the U.S., plus the ongoing liquidity drain, could pose risks to the emerging markets as they become less attractive for investors. The next support for the SET index is 1 4 6 1.61, or its June 2023 low . This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

  The bears , who have been arguing that a U.S. government shutdown would add to risks of a long-rumored recession, managed to take the S&P 500 down for the fourth straight week but were unable to dive the index below its 200-day EMA, ~ 4,265/key support at 4,279. One may want to keep an eye on the key resistance at 4,337 after Biden signed a bill late Saturday to avert the shutdown. Buyers could step in if the index breaks above the 4,337 level. The probability of a breakout is relatively high as t he last time the S&P 500 was down for f ive straight weeks was in September 20 13, when Fed chair Ben Bernanke unveiled his plan for winding down his quantitative easing program . This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!