NMS Investment Research

  The S&P 500 bounced off its trendline support / 50-day EMA as the index is pricing in the possibility of a 25 -basis point hike at the May FOMC meeting, pushing the fed funds rate to 5.00% and 5.25% . The market is hoping that the Fed will pause after that. Last week, the Fed's Mester, a non-voting member of the FOMC, said she sees the policy rate to move above 5% and expects a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. The U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter, in line with the forecast from the Fed Atlanta GDPNow model. T he spread between the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield and its 600-day EMA is 1.44%, meaning an impending U.S. recession is unlikely. It looks like the Fed's Mester will get what she wanted. Tech and Communication Services sectors led the market last week. Apple will release its fiscal 2Q 23 earnings result on Thursday. Their consensus earnings estimate is expected to be down 5.3% to $1.44 per share, while revenue could be down 4.1%

  Tesla stock broke below key trendline supports at ~ $154.50 on Wednesday after being downgraded by Jefferies on concerns about Tesla's perpetual price cuts. The stock is now threatening to move down further to retest $135.13. The good news is that Tesla could introduce their robotaxi in mid-2024, per Tasha Keeney, Director of Investment Analysis and Institutional Strategies a t Ark Invest. Here's what Elon Musk told analysts during the Tesla Q1 2023 conference call, " So, there will be a like a Model 3 or Model Y would be a robotaxi, a robotic taxi. " By U.S. law, however, a ny individual or business that transports people for a fee in a for hire vehicle, such as a taxi or any other vehicle used for transporting passengers for payment MUST have a license. So, no one knows for certain how Tesla's robotaxi will work. Meanwhile, competitors , all with level 4 autonomy , including GM's Cruise, Alphabet's Waymo One, Motional, Baidu's Apollo RT

  Investors sh r ug ged off comment s from Chamath Palihapitiya, a long time bitcoin bull, saying that cry p to is dead in America , per CNBC . Bitcoin is not quite dead though, but got stuck at 27.6k . Be aware that the 600-day EMA is now running parallel to the 27.6k support level. The next support level is at ~ 2 5 k / 100-day EMA, if the 27.6k level can't hold. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  The SET index looks broken. Beware that t he index could head down further to retest the March 14 low , ~ 1,525, if it can't bounce off from here. The market co ntinues to be under selling pressures on concern s that t he Thai central bank will hike the key policy rate by 25 bps , to 2.0% , at the May 31 meeting. At their last meeting in March , Thailand's monetary policy committee ha d already signaled more tightening as they attempt to bring inflation back within target s . This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!