NMS Investment Research

The SET index broke below its 200-day EMA (1,635.08) and now retests the DEC 28 breakout at around 1,627 . Be aware that the index could head down further to the 1,600 level or its 600-day EMA if the trendline support can't hold. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  Cathie Wood told CNBC today that she is confident decentralized and transparent blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum are on the right track. Beware that b itcoin could pull back to retest its 50-day EMA at around $22.2k if the trendline support can't hold. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  The S&P 500 pulled back to retest the trendline support at 3,943.08 / its 600-day EMA on Friday, on concerns over inflation. T he January core PCE, closely watched by the Fed, cam e in higher than expectations. Both the January CPI and PPI , released last week, were disappointing. The index was down for the third week in a row . Hence, i t could bounce off from here or else pull back further to test the trendline supports at around 3,925. From the Fed minutes, released on Wednesday, some FOMC members were pushing for a 50-basis point hike at the last FOMC meeting in January. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the possibility of a 50-basis point hike at the March FOMC meeting is 27%, an 8 .9% jump from a week ago. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  As a matter of fact, the past three recessions occurred after the U.S. 2 year treasury yield crossed under its 600-day EMA. Therefore, in order for a recession to happen in 2023, the 2-year treasury yield needs to rapid ly descend soon. It doesn't seem to look that way , though. Here's what some market analys ts are thinking about the recession scenario , "From a Sure-Thing Recession to No Landing. Is That Possible?", per Real Money. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  Bitcoin is retesting the trendline resistance at around $25.1k while everyone is trying to figure out what is behind the bullish momentum in cryptocurrency. A breakout could send bitcoin higher to test the $27.6k level, coincidentally, its 600-day EMA. More good news for the bulls is that a golden cross has emerged. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  The SET index is retesting the trendline support at around 1,642 after the Thailand Q4 GDP came in at 1.4%, well below the market consensus estimate of 3.5%. Weak export orders on s low demand and a strong baht could be part of the problem s . Be aware that t he index needs to bounce off from here or else will head down to test its 200-day EMA ( 1 , 634.18) and the DEC 28 breakout at around 1,626, respectively. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  The S&P 500 was down 0.28% for the week despite that January retail sales (3.0% vs. 1.9% est.) came in well above expectations. Both January CPI (6.4% Y-O-Y vs. 6.2% est.) and PPI (0.7% vs. 0.4% est.) were disappointing. Federal Reserve officials immediately weighed in on this week's inflation data. "St. Louis Federal President James Bullard said Thursday that he 'was an advocate for a 50-basis-point hike and … argued that we should get to the level of rates the committee viewed as sufficiently restrictive as soon as we could.' Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard’s hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Neither Mester nor Bullard vote this year on the Federal Open Market Committee, ..." per CNBC. T he 10-year U.S. Treasury yield traded at 3.82% on Fri, up 8 basis points for the week. The good news is that the 50-day EMA just crossed over the 200-day EMA, meaning a golden cross pattern has emerged. The PCE index, closely w

  The S&P 500 dropped below its key support  level at 4, 115 on Thursday as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 4 basis points to 3.67%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been on the rise since early Feb from its support level at 3.4%. It traded at 3.74% on Fri , the highest level since Jan 5. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and disappointing outlooks from big tech companies fuel recession fears. Be aware that the S&P 500 could pull back further to retest the 4,000 level if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise. The VIX index is already threatening to break above its 50-day MA. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!