NMS Investment Research

  The S&P 500 closed above a key resistance level at 4,000, ahead of the upcoming Feb 1 FOMC meeting. The market expects Fed policymakers to raise interest rates by a quarter-point and is betting they will end their rate-hike cycle in March, per Reuters. The bears have been trying to take the S&P 500 down after the December meeting and they probably will do it again next week if Fed Chair Powell maintains his hawkish tone. Mega cap tech earnings, including Apple, Alphabet and Amazon, reporting after Thursday's closing bell, might make or break the S&P 500 index. A "higher-highs" chart pattern will emerge and a bottom could be in if the index can break above 4,200. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  Apple stock briefly broke above its bear market territory at $146.17 and 200-day EMA at $146.35 before pulling back to close at $145.93 on Fri. A breakout could send the stock higher to the $156 level. There are supports at around $137.10 and $134.00. The company is expected to report its fiscal Q1 2023 earnings on Feb 2. UBS forecasts Apple to have shipped 79 million iPhones vs. 80 million consensus, per Apple Insider. A w eak dollar could offset some revenue los t due to the Foxconn Zhengzhou plant disruptions and weak global smartphone shipments, which plunged 18.3% year-over-year .  Despite all of this, Apple still maintained the position as number one smartphone maker in the world with a 24.1% market share, per IDC. Be aware that comments from Apple on their March quarter will be crucial to the stock moves, up or down. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  Tesla stock gapped up 10.75 % at the opening on Thu , just above the key trendline resistance, despite that the company reported "beat and miss" 4Q22 results. The stock has gained bullish momentum since early Jan and may be heading higher to test $165.80. Beware that a dragonfly doji candlestick pattern has emerged, signaling a potential reversal in price. From the conference call, price cuts seem to be working as YTD orders came in at the highest level they have seen in company history. Tesla is now prioritizing sales over profits and demand seems not to be a problem at the moment. Nonetheless, one may want to keep an eye on the decline in the gross automotive profit margin, which sunk from 31% in 4Q21 to about 26% in 4Q22, the lowest in two years. Let's hope there will be no further price cuts in the near future as it might turn into an EV pricing war.... "How Tesla’s price cuts could spur an EV pricing war", per CNBC. This note   contained herein is not 

  Bitcoin broke its 200-day EMA and is now retesting two key trendline resistances at around $23k. A breakout will take bitcoin to the next level at $24.2k. Beware that bitcoin's RSI is already topping. Overbought conditions can last for a while but not forever. "$1.48B in Bitcoin options expire on Friday — Will BTC hold $22K?", per cointelegraph.com. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

The Thailand SET index has been trending down since Jan 9 and is threatening to break down as the optimism about the return of Chinese tourists may run out of steam. The rising Thai baht doesn't help either as it poses economic headwinds, particularly to Thai exporters and maybe the tourism sector. T he bulls might need to figure out what the next catalyst would be for the SET to break above the trendline resistance , or else be prepared for a pullback to retest the DEC 28 breakout.  This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  Alphabet stock jumped 5.34% to close just under the key resistance level at $100 after the company announced plans to reduce global headcount by 12,000. A breakout above $100 could take the stock higher to the $105 or $106 levels. The company is expected to announce its 4Q22 earnings on Feb 2. Although there could be some tailwinds from the weakening US dollar, the company continues to lose ground to rivals such as ByteDance’s TikTok. One may want to keep an eye on YouTube's ad revenue, which dropped down to $7.07 billion last quarter, a 1.9 % decline Y-O-Y. Another factor to be cautious about: There is a potential threat on the horizon posed by OpenAI Inc.’s ChatGPT to Google's dominant search engine. Google called on Larry Page and Sergey Brin to fight back against ChatGPT after issuing a "code red", per The New York Times. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  The S&P 500 remains below the 4,000 level after Fed hawks came out and insisted that more rate hikes are needed to keep inflation on a downward trend. The market is concerned that the Fed could over-tighten though, and make the same mistakes as Ben Bernanke, which led to the Great Recession of 2008. From the bond market data, the 2-year US Treasury yield could have peaked in November at 4.72%. Smart money is already selling the U.S. dollar and has moved to gold. The S&P 500 moves next week are data dependent, a slew of US economic data (GDP, PCE and PMI) as well as big tech earnings. The good news is that the FOMC blackout period is approaching and there could be less noise from Fed hawks! This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  Tesla stock jumped 4.91% on Fri , to close at $133.42, after a Wedbush survey based upon over 500 prospective EV buyers in China showed that 76% of EV Chinese consumers are considering buying a Tesla after price cuts, while  BYD came in second place followed by Nio, per Yahoo Finance. Tesla stock is now retesting the trendline resistance at around $124.35 and $135.13. On Tue, China Merchants Bank International (CMBI) also reported identical numbers to the Wedbush survey, showing that average daily sales for Tesla in China during the Jan 9 to Jan 15 period jumped 76% Y-O-Y. The CMBI data, however, showed that the BYD sales increase more than doubled, outperforming Tesla. It might be interesting to see the results of the similar Wedbush survey in the US, where the Tesla brand net favorability has dropped significantly over the past year, according to Morning Consult. We will find out more next week, when Tesla reports its 4Q22 earnings on Jan 25, whether strong buyer sentiment t

  AbbVie stock has been under selling pressure since last week after CEO Richard Gonzalez told analysts at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference on Jan 11 that the company's performance could be affected near term due to the loss of exclusivity of Humira. He d id not anticipate a decline in 2024 earnings, however , per CNBC. Investors may get more clarity on forecasts for sales of the two Humira successor drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, on Feb 9 when AbbVie report s its 4Q22 earnings result . Meanwhile, the stock could be heading down to retest $138.25. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  Gold is retesting the key resistance level at $1923.70, or the Aug 2011 high, in response to the weakening US economy and the rise in recession risks. The latest US economic data this week shows that the producer price index declined 0.5% for the month, higher than the estimate of a 0.1% decrease while December retail sales fell 1.1%, worse than the 1% forecast. HSBC expects the Fed's final rate hike to be 50 bps at the next Fed meeting on Feb 1 to a range of 4.75%-5.0 0%, and cuts at next year's meetings, according to a Reuters report. From the bond market data , the 2-year US Treasury yield could already have peaked in November at 4.72%. “ The market does not believe the Fed’s insistence that they will actually go above 5% and stay there for an extended period. This is best reflected in the U.S. 2-year yield,…which is as low as it’s been since early October ’22, many Fed rate increases ago,” said Louis Navellier, founder and president of Navellier & Associates, in

  Apple stock moved higher on Tue and is now retesting the $137.10 resistance level after the company unveil ed the new MacBook Pro featuring high-powered M2 Pro and M2 Max chips.  If the bullish momentum continues, the stock could retest a key trendline resistance at around $144 before i ts f iscal f irst q uarter earnings on Feb 2. Another factor to consider: Gartner reported last week that Apple's market share in 4Q22 jumped 2.1% to 10.7%, compared to 8.6% in 4Q21 . Note that Apple and ASUS , with a 0.8% gain, were the only major brands to gain market share in 4Q22, while global PC shipments collapsed 28 .5 % . This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!

  The Thailand SET index is retest ing the trendline resistance at ~ 1, 695 , and is over bought . A cup and handle chart pattern has emerged. Since the return of Chinese tourists may already be priced in, t he bulls might need to figure out what the next catalyst would be for the SET to break above the trendline resistance , or else be prepared for a pullback to retest the DEC 28 breakout. A breakout could take the SET to the FEB 2022 high at 1,718 and a trendline resistance around 1,750, respectively. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to view the latest update!