NMS Investment Research

  Keep an eye on the FOMC minutes on Wed Jan 4 and U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Fri Jan 6. One shouldn't expect any big surprises from the minutes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell already said at the December press conference that the size of the rate increase at the next Fed meeting on Feb 1 would depend on incoming data. December nonfarm payrolls could shrink to 180k, compared to 263k in November. The PCE index cooled down in November but the core PCE came in stronger-than-expected. The November ISM and PMI readings were both below 50, indicating a contraction. The S&P 500 is s tuck at a t rendline r esistance but a b reakout c ould t ake the i ndex o ut of bear market territory at 3,855. There are plenty of supports between 3,800 and 3,491 if the quant funds want to take the S&P 500 down to retest the OCT 2022 low.  This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

        Tesla stock bounced off its trendline supports on Tuesday after the WSJ report ed that Cathie Wood's flagship ARK Innovation ETF ( NYSEARCA: ARKK ) added to its position in Tesla. The stock is now testing the $124.35 resistance level. The next resistance is $135.13. Be aware that the release of Tesla's December China deliveries are expected in early January 2023. The worst may already be priced in, but there's no guarantee. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

  Apple bounce d off its resistance level at $12 6 . 30 on Thursday, on WSJ's report saying the main Foxconn facility has recovered to about 70% of its capacity and wait times for iPhone Pro models have been shortened. A similar report yesterday came from the JPMorgan analyst in a note to clients saying that, "Lead times for the Pro models are now tracking in line with lead times seen prior to the Covid outbreak in Zhengzhou, China, suggesting that supply is improving and inching slowly towards parity with demand." The next resistances for AAPL are $134 and $135.72, or the 600-day EMA, respectively. Beware that t he q uant f unds are betting that the lost demand for iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max in the December quarter will be destroyed, not deferred into March, and will try again to take the stock lower. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

    Apple bounce d off the JUNE 16 low at $128.65. The r ebound may not be sustainable as the Fed still remains hawkish. Beware that t he q uant f unds could use the 2016 playbook to take the stock down to test the bottom of the channel at ~ $100. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to see the latest update!

    Tesla stock tumbled over 8% on Tuesday after Reuters reported the company will run production at a reduced rate at its Shanghai factory in January, following an annual production line maintenance shutdown in December. The stock could continue to be under selling pressure until the release of their December China deliveries, in early January 2023, and could be heading down to retest the MAY 2020 breakout at $100. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

  The Thailand SET index continues to be stuck un d e r the trendline resistance. No breakout is expect ed before the end of the year . Beware that the index could be heading down to retest its 600-day EMA at 1584.83, if the relative strength (RS) between MSCI Thailand and MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) weakens. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update! .

  UBS told CNBC last month that the lows are not in and the S&P 500 could fall further to 3,200 , reaffirming the price target set by BofA Securities in May.   At this rate, the index could be bottoming before the effective federal funds rate reaches its terminal rate or a potential recession in 2023 even begins , unless someone tries to move the goal posts around again. Keep an eye on the trendline support at ~ 3,545! Let's see if the S&P 500 can bounce off from there. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

  T he bears are moving the goal posts around while argu ing that Fed Chair J. Powell could make the same mistakes as Ben Bernanke, which led to the Great Recession of 2008 . Back in 2007, the S&P 500 sell-off began after the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) at 5.25% plunged while t he 2Y U.S. Treasury yield crossed under its 600-day EMA , typically a sign of an impending recession. I n 2022, the sell-off began in early January, even before the Fed 's first rate hike at the March FOMC meeting. The question that needs to be asked is when will the S&P 500 bottom ?...After the EFFR reaches its terminal rate or after a potential recession in 2023 is over?! This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to see the latest update!

  Alphabet stock sold off on Thursday after the company announced that YouTube TV reache d a deal to stream NFL Sunday Ticket for the next seven years . The stock managed to bounce off from its trendline support at ~ $87, but a downside risk continues as long as the stock trades under $100. Be aware that the stock could be under selling pressure due to the potential threat posed by OpenAI Inc.’s ChatGPT to Google's dominant search model! Morgan Stanley said there is nothing to worry about, though, per Business Insider. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

  " Micron Cuts Jobs, Spending as Memory Sales Sag on Weak Electronics Demand ." , per WSJ . Last week, Korean JoongAng Daily reported that SK Hynix, the world’s second largest memory chipmaker, is projected to lose money in the fourth quarter for the first time in a decade as demand falters for memory chips. Tighten your seat belts as the sector could be heading down to retest the trendline supports between 2,300 and 2,200. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

" Tesla (TSLA) has told employees that it is implementing a hiring freeze and confirmed that another wave of layoffs is coming next quarter ,..." , per Electrek on Wednesday . It's no wonder why Tesla stock was down slightly today when the tech sector was up 1.68%. The stock could continue to be under selling pressure until the release of their December China deliveries, in early January 2023. There is a weak support at $124.35 before heading down to test the $100 level. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!  

  Bitcoin continues to be stuck under the $17.6k level and is underperforming gold . Adding to the resistance is its 50-day EMA, which is now at $17.5k. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!

  "Evercore ISI slashes Tesla target by $100 after stock fails at critical level", per CNBC. The news sent the stock tumbling 6% today and is now testing its long-term trendline support at ~$ 140. A big selloff began last week after the 600-day EMA crossed over the 100-day EMA. There is a weak support at $124.35 before heading down to test the $100 level. This note contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.  

      Fed Chair J. Powell 's hawkish remarks sent the S&P 500 back into bear market territory. T he market fears that Powell could make the same mistakes as Ben Bernanke , which led to the Great Recession . The Fed closely watches the PCE index, that is expected to decline on Friday. So there could still be a possibility of a year-end rally back to 4000-4115, as long as the VIX doesn't break above its 50-day MA. This note   contained herein is not and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.   Click here to see the latest update!