NMS Investment Research

The S&P 500 surged for the fourth straight day on Friday, br eaking out of the downtrend channel , to close above the correction level (5,502.69) after several media report s of China exempt ing some U.S. imports from its 125% tariff rate. Be aware that the Chinese Foreign Ministry said a day earlier that China has not been engaged in any talks or negotiations with the U.S. on tariffs. T he bottom may be in, pending the release of big tech earnings, plus reports o f U.S. inflation data and U.S. payrolls, next week. Also let's hope that Trump will not come up with an y other idea s on tariffs so the index can stay out of correction level s . This note contained herein is our opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

The Tesla Q1 earnings report on Tuesday was way worse than expected as revenue was down 9% Y-O-Y while net income plunge d 71%, compared to a year earlier. Despite a disastrous performance, Elon Musk remains bullish on Tesla, saying that his company will one day be the most valuable company in the world with its market capitalization larger than the next top five companies combined. Investors jumped in to the stock as they seem to be convince d by his comment s . Beware that Tesla stock's downtrend remains intact , though . The stock closed at $250.66 on Wednesday , just below its 600 day-EMA ($252.10), but slightly above the key support at $245.27 , or a 5 0% pullback from its high. There are plenty of resistance levels between $270 and $290, so we think that $TSLA could trade sideway s until the Robotaxi launch in June, unless Elon Musk surprises investors with big news! This note contained herein is our opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to bu...

The S&P 500 took a 2.41% nose dive on Monday , sliding down over 3% intraday to retest the 600-day EMA at 5,111.49, after CNBC's survey showed that only 43% of Americans approved of Trump's handling of the economy . Investor confidence may also be hurt by the lack of progress on global trade, added CNBC. American companies such as Boeing [BA] , Tesla [TSLA], Apple [AAPL] and Nvidia [NVDA] appear to be the big losers in Trump's tr a de war , letting their foreign competitors gain an advantage in the global market. To make matters worse, Trump is now ramping up attack s on Fed Chair Powell and demands that the Fed lower rates. Wall Street analyst s warn about deeper selloff s of the financial markets if Trump fires Fed Chair Powell. The U.S. GDP Q1 forecast by the Atlanta Fed is -2.2% as of April 17. Keep an eye on the 2Y treasury yield, it just broke its 600-day EMA. In the past 25 years, all three US recessions occurred after the 2Y treasury yield drop...

The S&P 500 is retesting the April 2024 low resistance on Thursday after Trump signaled that the tit-for-tat China tariffs may be near an end, per Reuters' report. It doesn't look good though . Over the weekend, China return ed a brand new Boeing jet back to the U.S. Earl ier in the week, China said that it ha d halted all U.S. jet deliver ies, worth about $40 billion, as part of Trump's trade war. The market downtrend remains intact as the odds for a recession caused by Trump's trade war rises. The U.S. GDP Q1 forecast by the Atlanta Fed is -2.2% as of April 17. Keep an eye on the 2Y treasury yield, it just broke its 600-day EMA. In the past 25 years, all three US recessions occurred after the 2Y treasury yield dropped below its 600-day EMA. This note contained herein is our opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

  The S&P 500 broke its 600-day EMA on Friday , retesting the April 2024 low at the 5 ,059.90 support level a fter Trump unveiled his tariff plan on Wednesday. Everyone should be concerned as the S&P could potentially be heading down to bear market territory, at 4,917.94, if the market believes that Trump can't fix the problem. The next support is at the 5,000 psychological level. Keep an eye on the 2Y treasury yield, it just broke its 600-day EMA. In the past 25 years, all three US recessions occurred after the 2Y treasury yield dropped below its 600-day EMA. This note contained herein is our opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!

  The S&P 500 closed on Friday at the key 5,667 resistance level as the market ignored Trump's talk and was more focused on the Fed's action. We expect the index to break above this level, as well as its 600-day EMA, next week ahead of the release of the February PCE data on Friday. The PCE is closely watched by the Fed and expectations are for a 0.3% increase. Keep an eye on the 2Y treasury yield , now retesting its 600-day EMA . In the past 25 years, all three US recessions occurred after the 2Y treasury yield dropped below its 600-day EMA. This note contained herein is our opinion and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Click here to view the latest update!